prediction markets − 13 December, 2006
when i attended confab.yahoo's micro-conference on *prediction markets*, i really didn't know what to expect. however, i was curious to see how it related to the web and technology. i suppose because of my past life whenever i hear the words *prediction, markets and hedge*, i instantly think of financial derivatives and trading. but i never thought how it would apply within a corporation to forecast everything from the price of ddr ram at hp to whether a product at microsoft will launch on schedule or months later. in both cases the group of hand picked speculators/participants' predictions were surprisingly accurate.
the scenarios they gave were pretty straight forward and simple. although i can see some issues which may arise that can cause market manipulation and inaccurate predictions. however it did give me ideas on how i can use prediction markets on my own super secret squirrelly project i'm working on.
the scenarios they gave were pretty straight forward and simple. although i can see some issues which may arise that can cause market manipulation and inaccurate predictions. however it did give me ideas on how i can use prediction markets on my own super secret squirrelly project i'm working on.
Comments:
kga245 (December 15, 2006. 06:55am)
Thanks, now you've gone and done it. I gotta know. What's the super secret squirrelly project? I could predict, but there is no wisdom in a crowd of one. Tell me!
pepero (December 15, 2006. 08:58pm)
well if i told you it wouldn't be a *super secret squirelly project* now would it? ;-)
kga245 (December 15, 2006. 10:13pm)
I promise I won't tell anyone. Not even my mother. :-)